Someone on the forums asked about that chart, and I immediately knew what they meant. It's a chart originating back from 2003 by Nanowrimo participant DrFrag roughly showing the probability of winning once you get to particular milestones in word count. I had to go back into the Nano forum archives and then run an image search on Google where I found it in someone's file directory. I saved it onto my own webspace since I didn't want to leech someone else's bandwidth.
Anyway, here it is!
Someone should do an update of this chart, although judging from the stats I was comparing in the previous post, I don't think the actual shapes of the curves are going to change all that much.
Addendum: The creator of that chart has an updated version from 2007 here.
